Various observers have been busy chattering away for the past week that President Obama may be losing ground in the developing U.S./Israel…um, disagreement(?). Benjamin Netanyahu responded to Obama’s impressive Cairo speech with a rather banal address in which he sort of, kinda, half-way accepted the notion of a Palestinian state, but once again refused to halt settlement building in the West Bank. Not long after, Israel’s Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, publicly sparred with Hillary Clinton over the settlements. And, in just the last two days the U.S. and Israel have accused each other (although very politely) of canceling a meeting between special envoy George Mitchell and counterparts from the Israeli government.
So is it true that Obama seems to be losing his spine in the face of Bibi’s intransigence? Common wisdom has it that The Lobby MUST be doing some heavy handed, yet quiet pressuring behind the scenes. But, just like in Iowa circa 2007, we may all be fooled.
Ha’aretz reports that a deal has been struck regarding the captured (or, “kidnapped” in Zionist-speak) Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit. He will be transferred to Egypt where he will remain in the custody of the Egyptian intelligence service until a final agreement on which Hamas prisoners Israel will release. His parents will be able to visit him in Egypt.
This paragraph sticks out from the Ha’aretz report:
The European source said Shalit’s transfer to Egypt was the first stage of the Egyptian-brokered agreement hammered out between Fatah, Hamas and other Palestinian factions, in coordination with the U.S. and with Syria’s support.
This is an extraordinary cast of players: Egypt, Hamas, Fatah, the U.S., Syria, and “other Palestinian factions”, which means Islamic Jihad, the popular committees, and, most likely, several heavily influential Gazan families. Arafat never even managed that.
While everyone has been busy looking at Bibi, Obama has begun to isolate Israel. Syria is opening up and the U.S. is reinstating its ambassador shortly; Hamas has now made a grand symbolic gesture of returning Shalit and a commitment to working within a Palestinian Authority structure to govern Gaza with Mahmoud Abbas; the other Palestinian factions have signed on to Hamas’ efforts; Egyptis carrying the operational burden in all of this. The European Union and the Quartet also weighed in yesterday supporting the U.S. demand for a settlement freeze.
Clearly Obama was not bluffing when he said during the campaign that diplomacy would be his first option. And he was being honest in Cairo when he said there will be actions, not just words. For those who expect swift action, Obama will disappoint. However, even-handed patience may be exactly the thing that fouls up Israel’s attempts to undermine his efforts.