Tonight the candidates, in their second debate, took a question on what they would do if Iran attacked Israel: respond immediately or “wait” on the UN Security Council. (Never mind that this was the “domestic policy debate“)

Both candidates gave easy answers: we must not let another Holocaust happen. In this response, Iran is cast as the new Nazi Regime and Ahmadinejad is cast as the modern day Hitler. But the reality is very different and much more complex.

The “threat” that Iran poses to Israel and the broader region is encapsulated by the continuing nuclear development program and their President’s nutty pronouncements on how the European Holocaust didn’t really happen and how Iran may wipe Israel off the face of the Earth.Let’s examine this a bit.

Ahmadinejad is the President of Iran, but he is not the most powerful person in the government’s top leadership. Iran has a rather bizarre split system of government with a President that leads the secular part with a legislature and elections and the like. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the “Supreme Leader” and heads the religious side of the government. He has total and final say over every decision made by the secular side of government and can overrule Ahmadinejad. Every time Ahmadinejad says something inflammatory it is useful to wait a couple of days and see what Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says. The pattern has been to walk Ahmadinejad’s statements back using sharply worded rejoinders. It’s pretty slick really; it let’s Ahmadinejad play to the conservative electoral base while the Ayatollah keeps the international community off balance. The Ayatollah has acknowledged the Holocaust and repeatedly emphasized their nuclear program is geared toward energy needs, not weapons use. Is that latter point accurate?